Get ready for a tsunami of Hispanic votes in November's general election: If
Super Tuesday primary results were any indication, angry Latino voters will
flood the polls, energized by what many see as a growing anti-immigrant sentiment
in the country.
Latino voters turned out in record numbers Tuesday, especially to back Democratic candidates. In California, Latino turnout nearly doubled, while in some states such as Connecticut and Missouri, it increased even more significantly.
"It was huge, and it will be huge in November," says pollster John Zogby, referring to the Hispanic voter turnout. "The issue of illegal immigration is really energizing Latino voters." Based on Tuesday's results, Zogby forecasts that Hispanic voters will make up nearly 11 percent of the total electorate in November's presidential elections, up from 8.5 percent in 2004, and 6 percent in the 2000 elections.
Consider the figures:
• In California, the state with the largest number of electoral college votes, Hispanics accounted for 29 percent of all Democratic votes in Tuesday's primary, up from 16 percent in the 2004 primary.
• In Connecticut, Hispanics made up 7 percent of the total Democratic vote on Tuesday, up from 2 percent in the state's 2004 primary.
• In Missouri, Latinos accounted for 5 percent of the Democratic vote, up from 1 percent in 2004.
• In Florida's Jan. 29 primary, Hispanics accounted for 12 percent of the Democratic vote, up from 9 percent in 2004.
The massive Latino turnout in Democratic primaries — mostly for Sen. Hillary Clinton — was a reaction to Republican hopefuls Mitt Romney's and Mike Huckabee's hard-line stands against undocumented workers.
Many Hispanic voters believe Romney and Huckabee — as well as anti-immigration crusaders on nightly CNN and Fox News cable TV news shows and conservative radio programs — have created an anti-Hispanic atmosphere that affects all Latinos, whether or not they are legally here.
"Latinos feel very much under attack," says Cecilia Munoz, vice president of the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic rights advocacy group.
Law enforcement raids in factories or restaurants frequented by Latinos are affecting all members of the community, Hispanic advocates say.
Likewise, recent ordinances in some cities that prohibit landlords from renting apartments to undocumented workers have created an atmosphere of racial profiling and discrimination in which all Hispanics are immediately suspected of being undocumented aliens, they say.
A recent nationwide poll of Hispanics by Bendixen and Associates said 76 percent of U.S. Hispanics agree with the statement that "anti-immigrant sentiment is growing in the United States," and 62 percent say that this phenomenon is affecting them or their families.
Asked what fuels the anti-immigrant sentiment, 64 percent said "racism."
Romney, who opposed President Bush's support for comprehensive immigration reform, claiming that that would amount to an "amnesty for illegal immigrants," said that he is not "anti-immigration," but "anti-illegal immigration."
But most Hispanics are skeptical of such claims by candidates who make fiery speeches against illegal immigration, but fail to mention that the doors to legal immigration are in most cases closed. While the U.S. labor market demands about 1.5 million foreign laborers a year, it only allows an average of 1 million in.
On Sept. 13, I wrote that "the recent immigration debate — and the anti-Hispanic climate it has brought about — has re-energized the Latino community, and leading Republican candidates are committing political suicide by continuing to pander to the xenophobic wing of their party."
In the aftermath of Super Tuesday, where Hispanics made up only 6 percent of the Republican vote, that has become even clearer. It will be hard for Republicans to win the 40 percent of the Hispanic vote that they got in 2004, and which was critical for Bush's re-election.
Granted, likely Republican nominee John McCain — who has a more realistic view of immigration, even if he has backtracked somewhat in recent weeks — may help the Republicans to do some damage control among Hispanics. But I doubt it will be enough to stem the Latino voters' tsunami that his own party has helped bring about.